LCP Market Reviews
December 6, 2021
Concerns about the omicron variant and Fed policy likewise moved fixed income markets. The Treasury yield curve flattened over the week, with short-maturity yields rising and long-term rates decreasing. Tax-free municipal bonds generated positive returns through most of the week and performed in line with US Treasuries at the broad sector level.
November 29, 2021
Positive economic data—including the lowest level of weekly jobless claims since 1969—helped drive the increase in Treasury yields. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.) The increases were particularly meaningful in short-and intermediate-term maturities.
November 22, 2021
Several signs that the economic expansion was regaining momentum seemed to support sentiment early in the week. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped 1.7% in October, the biggest gain since March, while September’s increase was revised higher.
November 15, 2021
Consumers appeared to be paying more attention to higher inflation than the healthy job
market, however. On Friday, researchers at the University of Michigan reported that their gauge of consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level (66.8) in a decade due to inflation worries.
November 8, 2021
Economic data released during the week were generally robust, showing that the economy gained strength as the late-summer wave of the delta variant eased. Factory orders increased 0.2% in September, slightly more than consensus expectations.
November 1, 2021
Investors may have been reassured that the flipside of slowing growth appeared to be moderating inflation pressures. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core (excluding food and energy) personal consumption expenditures index, rose 3.6% over the annual period, slightly below consensus and unchanged from the prior month's pace.
October 18, 2021
The US Treasury yield curve flattened through most of the week as investors assessed the latest inflation data and the Fed’s September policy meeting minutes.
October 11, 2021
The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls grew by 194,000 in September, well below consensus expectations of around
500,000. The workforce participation rate also ticked lower, which some viewed as especially surprising given the expiration of extended unemployment benefits during the month.
October 7, 2021
The week's inflation data were arguably not alarming. The Commerce Department's core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rising 3.6% over the 12 months ending in August, matching consensus. Continuing reports of supply restraints seemed to concern investors.
September 27, 2021
The coming wind-down of the central bank’s monthly asset purchases and mildly hawkish revisions to its interest rate forecasts helped push the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note significantly higher later in the week.
September 20, 2021
Investors pondered a few significant data surprises during the week. On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that core (less food and energy) consumer prices increased 0.1% in August, below consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase and the smallest gain since February.
September 13, 2021
According to traders, trading activity was relatively quiet in the municipal bond market during the holiday-shortened week, and steady cash flows continued to reinforce low yield levels. They also indicated that demand for longer maturities in the secondary market was somewhat soft as investors appeared to be waiting for dealers to clear more inventory of long-term securities.
September 6, 2021
The slowdown in employment gains was confirmed in the official August report on Friday, which seemed to provoke a mixed reaction in markets. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 235,000 versus consensus expectations for a gain of around 750,000. However, previous months’ gains were revised higher, and the unemployment rate fell to a new pandemic-era low of 5.2%.
August 30, 2021
Last week stocks gained as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine supported sentiment toward an ongoing economic recovery.
August 23, 2021
Worries that growth might be peaking also seemed to hamper sentiment. Stocks fell on Tuesday after the Commerce Department reported that retail sales slumped 1.1% in July, although off an upwardly revised June base. .
August 16, 2021
In a somewhat light week for US economic data releases, all eyes were on the latest inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% sequentially in July, a deceleration from the 0.9% registered in June and the smallest month-over-month uptick since March.
August 9, 2021
Intermediate-and long-term Treasury yields jumped Friday morning following news of stronger-than-expected employment growth in July. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.)
August 2, 2021
Weekly jobless claims fell less than expected, and continuing claims rose a bit. On the positive side, July consumer confidence surprised to the upside, and inflation expectations eased slightly. Personal spending rose more than expected in June (1.0%), rebounding from a slight contraction in May.
July 26, 2021
Positive news on the housing sector also helped markets last week. US housing starts increased by more than forecast in June, suggesting residential construction is stabilizing despite lingering supply chain constraints and labor shortages.
July 19, 2021
Growth and inflation data appeared to remain in the spotlight during the week. Stocks fell back on Tuesday, following the release of data showing that headline and core (excluding food and energy) consumer prices had jumped 0.9% in June, roughly twice consensus estimates (but the Fed is telling us not to worry).
July 12, 2021
The week's economic data generally indicated strong growth but surprised modestly on the downside, which may have helped push both equities and Treasury yields lower.